<BR><BR>曬衣窗台的一抺綠

美國一直把台灣當成看門狗，未建交卻要求台灣當前線堡壘：

台灣實質是第一島鏈的「前哨站」，但與美日韓並無正式軍事同盟保障。
美方企業在中國壓力下常自行「割台」：

例如Apple地圖標示台灣省、Google移除中華民國國旗、FB標註台灣為不合格國家(外國版才看的到)等

半導體讓利不對等：

　美國要求台積電赴美投資，卻不願分享技術或給予優惠政策，還要求交出供應鏈機密。

危機時刻的「抽身本能」：

　美軍高層、學者常放話「台灣不是美國核心利益」，讓人懷疑保衛台灣是否真是底線。
美國「戰略背叛」的記錄早就存在——包括對阿富汗、庫德族、越南、甚至烏克蘭都曾有類似情形
所以：台灣單獨擊退解放軍登陸雖困難，但「絕非不可能」

如果以下條件成立：

台灣提前布好地雷、反艦、反登陸系統
擁有完整且分散的C4ISR（指揮、控制、通信、情報、監控）架構
國軍士兵不再只守軍令，而是自主應變，且真正戰備化
民間有預備役、狙擊隊、城鎮巷戰準備
解放軍指揮失控、內部腐敗失能
-那麼台灣確實有機會「像德軍守奧馬哈」那樣，重創甚至逼退解放軍第一波攻勢。

真正的戰略思維應是：

-台灣不必擊敗中國，只要「讓它輸不起」。
也就是：
打得解放軍無法繼續補給與增援, 台灣只需支撐7天, 就能讓中共在國際間顏面盡失
讓北京政權內部出現軍事與政治分裂
讓國際社會得以正當介入

No formal alliance, but Taiwan's expected to be the front-line fortress

Taiwan sits right on the front edge of the First Island Chain — basically the West Pacific tripwire — but there’s no official military alliance with the U.S. to back that up.
U.S. companies often cave to China and "cut Taiwan loose"

Just look at how Apple labels Taiwan as a province, or how Google quietly removed the ROC flag — all under pressure from Beijing.
Semiconductor concessions are one-sided

The U.S. pushed TSMC to build factories in America, demanded supply chain data, yet offers little in return — no tech-sharing, no serious incentives, just more demands.
America’s instinct to bail when things get tough

U.S. generals and think tank types keep repeating that “Taiwan isn’t a core interest,” which really makes you wonder: would they actually show up when it counts?
Strategic betrayal isn’t a fantasy — it’s a pattern

Just ask the Afghans. Or the Kurds. Or South Vietnam. Or, frankly, Ukraine. History is full of U.S. partners being left holding the bag.

 

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So here's the deal:
Taiwan beating back a full PLA amphibious landing might be tough —
but it's not impossible

if these conditions are met:

Mines, anti-ship, and anti-landing systems are already in place

A fully decentralized, survivable C4ISR network (Command, Control, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, Recon)
Troops trained to act independently, not just wait for orders

Civilian militias, reservists, snipers, and urban combat prep ready to go
PLA forces suffer command breakdowns, corruption, and internal chaos

Then yeah — Taiwan could hit the PLA so hard, like the Germans at Omaha Beach, that the first wave is shattered or forced to retreat.

 

 

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The real strategic mindset should be:
Taiwan doesn't have to defeat China.
It just has to make sure China can't afford to win.
That means:
-Breaking their logistics and resupply, All Taiwan needs is seven days — and the CCP's reputation would collapse in front of the whole world.
-Causing internal fractures inside the Beijing regime
-And giving the international community the space — and the justification — to step in